tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post926600411823652210..comments2023-11-03T09:15:38.743-04:00Comments on The Daily Hab-it: Gauthier vindicated by Koivu deal?Arpon Basuhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11896844844557916169noreply@blogger.comBlogger17125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-11140977512663632972010-07-17T22:09:55.927-04:002010-07-17T22:09:55.927-04:00Good on you Arpon, too many people have harped on ...Good on you Arpon, too many people have harped on Pierre Gauthier for the Plekanec contract, but I continue to believe that measured against others, especially this new Koivu deal, Plekanec is a steal. People forget how effective Plekanec is as a defensive player as well.<br /><br />Also, not sure if anyone else would find this funny, but I did:<br /><br />http://www.nameourcondo.com/entry/319<br /><br />Someone is running an ex-Leaf for the name on a new Toronto condominum - and the ex-Leaf is Garry Valk. How cool is that?McPheenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-88106128940941540332010-07-16T16:06:00.814-04:002010-07-16T16:06:00.814-04:00Thanks for replying Arpon but how does a GM make a...Thanks for replying Arpon but how does a GM make a deal based on the possibilty of a lockout? What if it doesn't happen? Maybe I'm missing something but that doesn't make sense to me.jkrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-31697775510079570032010-07-16T14:59:16.735-04:002010-07-16T14:59:16.735-04:00Mikko's contract is actually 5.4M a year plus ...Mikko's contract is actually 5.4M a year plus bonuses every other year except there is double bonus on last year of contract.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-62703772507993349392010-07-16T14:52:46.297-04:002010-07-16T14:52:46.297-04:00@jkr - it appears the salary structure for the Koi...@jkr - it appears the salary structure for the Koivu deal is largely based on the threat of a lockout, as Michael Russo writes in his analysis this morning. But yes, that will be a tough contract to trade, even though I doubt they will ever want to.<br /><br />@Olivier - That's a far more exhaustive look than what I have here. I've got to admit, I don't fully get GVT, but Pleks does pretty well there as well. And Koivu's GVT/$M based on his cap hit two years from now would be 2.31, far lower than Plekanec's 2.92. <br /><br />@pmk - As always, you hit it right on the head. The Price contract still decides all, and the way he's gone about it I think Gauthier will be paying him more than he bargained for. But I don't think it will go as high as Halak's dealArpon Basuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11896844844557916169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-41422949077610619422010-07-16T13:45:42.935-04:002010-07-16T13:45:42.935-04:00maybe the koivu sheds the pleks deal in a positive...maybe the koivu sheds the pleks deal in a positive light. Maybe.<br /><br />but any positive we quickly be lost after he signs price for 3.5 mil (0.25 more than halak). nice. wow de he screw the pooch on that one!pmknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-16423300912725701962010-07-16T13:14:23.939-04:002010-07-16T13:14:23.939-04:00Arpon: the Plekanec signing was looked at from a s...Arpon: the Plekanec signing was looked at from a stat-heavy perspective here:<br /><br />http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=595<br /><br />A good complement to what you brought up here.Olivierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18280119238261445564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-68265688078002990932010-07-16T12:54:51.275-04:002010-07-16T12:54:51.275-04:00nhlnumbers.com reports that the LAST year of this ...nhlnumbers.com reports that the LAST year of this deal pays Koivu 9 million. Aren't these deals supposed to go down as the players ages & performance declines. The guy will be impossible to trade.jkrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-41417647112757697322010-07-16T12:34:52.381-04:002010-07-16T12:34:52.381-04:00@Habtastic Yes, FO% is an important stat and Pleks...@Habtastic Yes, FO% is an important stat and Pleks had a bad year after starting out strong. But hits will never be an important stat because it varies so much from building to building. Just look at NHL hits stats and compare players totals at home and on road. The discrepancy is striking.Arpon Basuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11896844844557916169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-71057639081581708802010-07-16T11:32:13.474-04:002010-07-16T11:32:13.474-04:00I just have to say two things...and I may be crazy...I just have to say two things...and I may be crazy but that is beside the point :)<br /><br />1) Great reading as always and really good breakdown with proof and stats to back up your points, refreshing compared to the garbage posted on blogs, etc now on the internet. Even I can write a blog now!<br /><br />2) I love the changes and could not be happier with the state of the Canadiens right now. I'm trying to balance out all the people that want Gauthier's head for making emotional moves that had to be done. This is the most talent the Habs have had in years, and I mean years. I can see Eller as our front line center with Cammy and Avtsin and Gomez running the second line where he should be, with Pleks as our shut down third line center and a Boyd type as 4th line center - wow. We have big strong scoring wingers (not counting Leblanc and Kristo) coming and puck moving defencmen on the way. This is a great time to be a habs fan. Let the Gomez contract go, stop fretting over St Louis's goalie and look at what we have! Oh yeah, we have a 22 yr old goalie who was the 5th overall pick not long ago, that has won a world championship and an AHL title already too!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-8346099033944767592010-07-16T11:19:14.444-04:002010-07-16T11:19:14.444-04:00Has no revelance to Koivu deal. Plekanec had to be...Has no revelance to Koivu deal. Plekanec had to be signed and was. The other move is what may end Gauthier/Gainey's career here. Trading Halak away! Tradijng that wrong goalie away WHEN they didn't FIRST sign Carey Price.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-79129755933397181192010-07-16T10:35:49.470-04:002010-07-16T10:35:49.470-04:00Another stat that is crucial is face-off % and to ...Another stat that is crucial is face-off % and to a lesser degree, hits.<br />Koivu is the best of the three at 56.9% and Kessler is close at 55.1%, but Pleks is way down at 49%.<br />As for hits, I don't know the stats, but I imagine the order and differential is probably about the same.<br />This is why I would argue that Pleks is probably worth about 4.5 mil at most, but gets 5 because of taxes and a lack of quality UFA centers.<br />Tremendous blogs, btw. Please don't stop producing them.Habtasticnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-13194737211468583622010-07-16T10:16:29.529-04:002010-07-16T10:16:29.529-04:00Arpon: if you were surprised by Gomez's stats,...Arpon: if you were surprised by Gomez's stats, go back to behindthenet.ca and have a look to see how much Corsi he's *lost* by joining the Canadiens!<br /><br />Gomez has been Captain Corsi for years -- he had fantastic numbers with the Rangers, and his relative Corsi has always been huge. Some of it has to do with zone starts and his tendency to chuck the puck, sure, but he still needs to have the puck in the O-zone to get those Corsi plusses. He is a very strong even-strength player.<br /><br />Montreal is a Corsi blackhole (I suspect due to style of play) so his numbers took a nosedive, but he's still head and shoulders above everyone else on the team. Arpon, you make a good point that having a line headed up by Gomez and getting favorable zone starts will crank everyone else's relative Corsi down.<br /><br />Plekanec does fantastic work in very, very tough circumstances. The sort of thing that, IMO, should make us take a second look at the performance of his wingers, too, namely Cammalleri and, especially, the much-derided elder Kostitsyn. Andrei put up perfectly reasonable 5-on-5 numbers while being tacked on to Pleky's tough minutes, including sub-50% zone starts. He had the highest Qualcomp of the team last year, too. He does well with tough minutes and doesn't break the bank -- a valuable skillset that's being underapreciated, IMO, with all the criticism he's constantly the target of.MathMannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-24117031672809622532010-07-16T09:16:12.901-04:002010-07-16T09:16:12.901-04:00Thanks for running the numbers Arpon... and I wond...Thanks for running the numbers Arpon... and I wonder if part of the difference between the relative salaries of some players can be simply explained by the aesthetics of their game. <br /><br />There is something about the way some players play - power, grace and elegance are three attributes that come to mind - that makes them look better than others and better than their numbers. Think Jean Belliveau compared to Phil Esposito.<br /><br />From watching Koivu, Gomez, Plekanec and Carter a number of times (the four you refer to) there is something about the way the first two play that is more 'striking' than the other two.<br /><br />I know stats and the circumstances related to the timing of contract negotiations are the two most important factors in determing salary. And my assessment of the above players is completely subjective (others may not agree). <br /><br />But if studies have determined that business salaries are correlated to qualities like height and attractiveness - higher salaried people tend to be taller and more attractive than lower salaried people - why couldn't the same overtly subjective factors influence salary negotiations in hockey.Vnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-1549956283868358782010-07-16T09:08:52.278-04:002010-07-16T09:08:52.278-04:00@Olivier
I too was surprised when I saw Gomez'...@Olivier<br />I too was surprised when I saw Gomez's numbers in each of the categories I looked at for Plekanec. And it's his Corsi numbers that really make Plekanec's relative Corsi look worse than it really is. Koivu doesn't have another offensive line that raises the bar so high on his team, which makes his relative number so good. And by the way, I didn't list them here but I looked at Kesler's numbers, and he basically blows both of them out of the water in most categories.Arpon Basuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11896844844557916169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-28738816014511235612010-07-16T08:54:05.115-04:002010-07-16T08:54:05.115-04:00Wow, ouststanding analysis, Arpon! It's true ...Wow, ouststanding analysis, Arpon! It's true that stats can sometimes make people's heads spin, but I tend to eat them up!<br /><br />While I too felt that Plek $5 Mil per was about 500K-$1 mil off of what he should be earning, your analysis is compelling.<br /><br />At the end of the day, Plek would be an excellent 2nd line center to the Habs real 1st line center—a position that is not currently filled.<br /><br />Part of the reason that Habs are having to do such majoy cap-gymnastics is because of the albatross that is Gomez's contract.<br /><br />But alas...<br /><br />Again, great piece!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10147553463342944430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-2084582438406058142010-07-16T07:04:23.088-04:002010-07-16T07:04:23.088-04:00Gauthier would already have someone in mind? Let ...Gauthier would already have someone in mind? Let me guess. Another ex-buddy from Ottawa?Francois Simardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07983825979285618810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-703672817425686916.post-66985723718989020342010-07-16T01:31:31.279-04:002010-07-16T01:31:31.279-04:00Aaaah, advanced stats.
You do a much better job t...Aaaah, advanced stats.<br /><br />You do a much better job than me explaining them... I guess that's why you are a journalist and I a dweeb writning a blog on the internet.<br /><br />Say, looking at these, made me think about our resident albatross, Scott Gomez.<br /><br />PK: 2.03 minutes a game, +/- better when on the ice<br /><br />Corsi relative: +10.5 (first on the team)<br /><br />Quality of competition 0,075<br /><br />Quality of teammates 0,351 (more on that later)<br /><br />1.97 points / 60 minutes.<br /><br />Not bad, uh? The thing here is, Zone Starts. That is, how many faceoffs does a player attends in the offensive and the defensive zones? You get more starts in the defensive zone, all of the other metrics go down with it, of course.<br /><br />So there, % of faceoffs attended to in the offensive zone:<br /><br />Gomez: 55.6% (!)<br />Koivu: 51.3<br />Plekanec: 44.3(!!!)<br /><br />Oh, and I'm too lazy to type them here, but the older Koivu certainly doesn't look like any of these three has anything on him when you look at those numbers.<br /><br />I think we are bound to think such and such player is criminally overpaid simply because we had a 6+ millions guy playing for us for 4-4.5 for so long.Olivierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18280119238261445564noreply@blogger.com