Exciting times

These are indeed exciting times, and not only because the NHL is on the radar again with teams reporting to training camp.

But over at The Daily Hab-it headquarters in beautiful NDG, there's been a lot of change over the past few weeks and I thought it was time I filled you in on some of it so you know what to expect from me over the coming season.

First off, I'm thrilled to announce that I've signed on to be the Montreal correspondent for NHL.com this season, an opportunity I've waited a long time for. I loved writing for The Canadian Press, and will still do so from time to time, but this move makes me the lone hockey writer in Montreal for NHL.com. That means I will cover every game (or close to it) and every morning skate, which wasn't the case in the past. I have goosebumps just typing that.

The thought of actually writing for a league-endorsed publication would have been unthinkable for me a few years ago, but I like what the NHL has done with its website over the past few years by giving its writers some liberty to cover the news properly. There are obviously limits to what can be written on the league's website, but the reason I love being a hockey writer is to do just that, write about what happened in hockey games and about what the players are like off the ice. And that's exactly what NHL.com does, so I'm very happy to now be a part of it.

So all of you will be able to see what I'm doing in one, easy to access location, but that doesn't mean I'm abandoning what I've built here. Not by a long shot. I hope to be able to continue providing the same level of coverage at The Daily Hab-it that I've been providing the past two years, and my work with NHL.com places no limits on what I can write here, so don't expect my tone to change.

It's possible that I'll get lazy at times and simply post a link here to my work at NHL.com, but I don't anticipate that happening too often.

There are also some possibilities out there for the growth of this blog and I've had some encouraging discussions with people over the past few weeks that could lead to some changes here as well, but I'm not really at liberty to go into more details for the time being. I'll let you all know when I'm able to.

So sorry if you were expecting some Habs talk here, but what I really wanted to do today was make that announcement. I'll be attending Canadiens training camp on Saturday and will try to post something on here once my actual job there is done. But I've been walking on cloud nine about these developments the past few days and just wanted to share that with all of you, my loyal readers who I appreciate and cherish very much.

This blog has played a big role in helping me grow my profile over the past couple of seasons, and I have no one but you to thank for that. So thanks, and hopefully you'll keep coming back all season long to get your news and Canadiens updates right here at The Daily Hab-it.

Game on, people.

Relief for Plekanec?

Tuesday's announcement that cagey veteran Jeff Halpern agreed to a one-year deal with the Canadiens for the bargain basement price of $600,000 will cause various trickle-down effects throughout the organization.

Firstly, it essentially removes any and all drama for training camp as Bulldogs hopefuls like Max Pacioretty, Ryan White, Ben Maxwell, David Desharnais, Aaron Palushaj and others have very little chance of sticking with the big club. The Canadiens now have 23 one-way contracts, while the aforementioned players all have two-way deals.

(UPDATE, Sept 8, 10:27 a.m. Thanks to commenter Marc-Philippe for pointing out that the Habs don't have 23 one-way deals, they have 20. Lars Eller, P.K. Subban and Alexandre Picard are all on two-way deals, the former two the entry-level variety. However, I think Eller and Subban are both locks to make the team, while Picard's low cap hit gives him the inside track on a roster spot. The Habs could also choose to go with a 22-man roster and send Picard to Hamilton, which would save a lot of cap space. My bad. Carry on.)


Montreal is not so poverty-stricken that it would refuse to pay someone an NHL salary to play in Hamilton, but those guys are going to have to be far better than one of those players with one-way deals in order to make the team. It's not impossible that one of the Hamilton kids will see time in Montreal eventually, especially if injuries hit, but it's not likely to come out of camp.


Not only that, but Halpern actually saves the Canadiens about $250,000 on the cap when compared to the Bulldogs players mentioned above seeing as all of them except Desharnais make at least $850,000 in the NHL (Desharnais would make $550,000, which is basically a wash with Halpern's contract).

With Halpern signed, Pierre Gauthier has a little over $350,000 in cap space remaining if he doesn't plan on using the bonus cushion (which he obviously would rather not do). If one of the Hamilton kids had made the team, that cap space would have been at $100,000 or less. 

So, in addition to adding one veteran presence to the roster, this signing gives Gauthier the ability to add another veteran at the trade deadline should the opportunity or need arise. Working in highly theoretical terms, if Gauthier still had $350,000 in cap space available at the Feb. 28, 2011 trade deadline, it would allow him to acquire a player with a $1.58 million annual salary. Having only $100,000 in cap space, on the other hand, would get Gauthier a $451,000 player, which doesn't exist seeing as that's lower than the league minimum.

There's a long list of players who risk missing the playoffs and are due to become unrestricted free agents after the season making less than $1.58 million, including Joel Ward ($1.5 million), Anton Babchuk ($1.4 million), Karlis Skrastins ($1.375 million), John Madden ($1.25 million), Curtis Glencross ($1.2 million), Marty Reasoner ($1.15 million), Todd Marchant ($1.125 million), Milan Jurcina ($1 million) and Ben Eager ($965,000), among many others. I know none of those names will make any of you jump out of your seats, but would the thought of adding Dominic Moore at the deadline have sent you into a frenzy last summer? 

There's also the possibility that Gauthier could choose to use the bonus cushion if the team looks as though it will contend. That would bump the available cap space to nearly $780,000, which would allow for the acquisition of a $3.5 million player at the deadline.


But the ultimate effect, potentially, I can see from adding Jeff Halpern is getting some defensive relief for Tomas Plekanec.


With Halpern on board from the start of the year, as opposed to adding Moore just before the Olympic break last season, it's possible Jacques Martin will reduce Plekanec's workload in his own end and allow him and his linemates to concentrate their efforts at the offensive end of the ice.


Plekanec would never say this explicitly, and trust me, I tried as hard as I could to get it out of him at the end of last season, but I'm sure he wouldn't mind being freed up to save his energy for offensive shifts. Last year Plekanec started his shifts in the defensive zone more often than any other forward on the team, which severely hampers not only his ability to score, but those of his linemates as well.


Plekanec insists he has no problem with this, but I also know for a fact he gets very annoyed when his lack of production in the playoffs is brought up, as it was in the conference call following his signing a six-year, $30 million contract earlier this summer. He had two extremely difficult defensive assignments in the first two rounds of the post-season and still produced reasonably well, all things considered.


Now, if Halpern could help form a true shutdown line with, perhaps, Dustin Boyd and Travis Moen on his wings, maybe Martin would be more inclined to send those three out there in defensive zone faceoff situations than Plekanec.


Considering Plekanec spent most of his time last season playing with Mike Cammalleri and Andrei Kostitsyn - not exactly two of the more defensive-minded players on the team - just think of how many wasted shifts they had running around in their own end chasing the puck. Now try and think if the number of those shifts were cut in half because Halpern was taking them. Don't you think there would be some added benefit of Plekanec diverting that energy towards the other team's net? I do. It remains to be seen if Martin does as well.


Halpern could also take some of Plekanec's team-leading penalty-killing time away, further freeing some energy for offence.


It's also entirely possible that Halpern's arrival will have absolutely no effect on how Martin uses Plekanec, and that's fine as well. As I've tried to demonstrate several times here, Plekanec is one of the best two-way centres in the NHL and I see no problem with Martin using that versatility to its full potential. 

But it would be at least interesting to see what Plekanec would be like offensively if he weren't so burdened with defensive responsibilities, and I think Halpern's arrival could offer a glimpse into that scenario.


I'll conclude with what I feel could be the opening night line combinations at forward. Your thoughts on the matter are always welcomed:


Cammalleri - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Pouliot - Gomez - Gionta
Darche/Pyatt - Eller - Lapierre
Moen - Halpern - Boyd

An opportunity lost

It's been nine months since New Year's day, the day Pierre Gauthier could have started to negotiate a contract extension for defenceman Andrei Markov. And while there was never any rush to do so, it now appears that one of the options Gauthier had available to him to keep Markov's cap number relatively low has been taken away.

With the NHL and NHLPA agreeing to amend the CBA midstream by changing the rules on long-term contracts, Markov's next deal is likely to take up a big chunk of cap space.

I don't think that Gauthier was actually considering throwing a 10-year contract Markov's way, in fact I'd have been shocked if he did. But now, he can't. Or at least it's not worth the trouble with this new formula for calculating cap hits on these long-term deals.

You've got to wonder if Gauthier won't have regrets that he didn't jump through this loophole while it was still open when Markov is suddenly counting for $7 million - or more - against the cap. And that cap situation will probably be pretty tight to begin with when Markov's contract expires on July 1.

Of course, this might also be a good thing because who knows how the Devils, Canucks, Hawks, Red Wings and Bruins will feel about those long-term deals five years from now when those players refuse to retire.

Speaking of tight quarters, with Carey Price's contract being signed yesterday the Habs cap figure has come into focus. I've seen it reported that Montreal has over $1.3 million in cap space remaining with 22 players signed, but that's not entirely accurate.

Yes, Gauthier could spend another $1.3 million if he wants, however he would have to use the dreaded bonus cushion in order to do so. His real level of penalty-free flexibility is a little over $950,000 (by subtracting Lars Eller's $425,000 in bonus money), which would get largely gobbled up as soon as a forward from Hamilton makes the club.

That's why it wouldn't shock me to see the Habs go with a 22-man roster to start the season, with defencemen Ryan O'Byrne and Alex Picard as the only two extras.

Haters, step forward

Here is your chance to shine, for those of you who believe Carey Price is a spoiled brat who hasn't deserved anything he's received as an NHL goalie.

The news Thursday afternoon that Price had signed a two-year deal worth $5.5 million is bound to make many among you scream bloody murder. Not because Price is grossly overpaid with that contract, but rather because it comes one day after the Stanley Cup winning goalie signed a deal that was far less generous.

Many looked at Antti Niemi signing a one-year deal for $2 million with the San Jose Sharks as a clear sign that Price cannot possibly ask for any more than that, and should even receive considerably less. But the differences between the two don't begin and end with the number of Cup rings on their fingers (actually, seeing as Niemi hasn't yet received his ring, they do in fact have the same number. But you get my point).


Niemi's regular season numbers in 39 games played last season were a 26-7-4 record, 2.27 GAA and .912 save percentage. On the surface, that looks miles ahead of Price's numbers of 13-20-5, 2.77 and, curiously, a .912 save percentage in 41 games played. I think it's pretty widely accepted that save percentage is the most accurate statistic to determine a goaltender's performance, so how is it that Niemi's and Price's other numbers are so vastly different?


Allow me to demonstrate.


First of all, and perhaps most obviously, Niemi was playing behind the best defensive team in the league, allowing an NHL-low 25.1 shots per game. For Niemi that number was even lower, as he saw only 24 shots per game during the regular season. Price, in only two more games played than Niemi, saw 308 more shots on goal over the course of the season, or 6.3 per game.

I'll be curious to see how Niemi does playing for a team that allowed 31.4 shots per game last season, 20th in the league.


Then there's the age and experience factor. Niemi was playing his first full season and he's already 27 years old, while Price just completed his third season and just turned 23.


But before you start screaming about how it's all about winning and that their won-loss records are practically polar opposites of each other, consider one other factor in your judgment: goal support.


I went into much greater detail a couple of months ago about how little of it Price received last season, but I think this comparison makes it even clearer.


Only Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov of the high-scoring Washington Capitals received more even strength goal support than Niemi did last season, as his teammates scored 3.04 goals for every 60 minutes he was on the ice. Even during the playoffs, Niemi's Hawks scored 3.54 goals per game, tops in the league. Price? He got 1.87 goals for per 60 minutes, better than only three other regular goalies in the whole league. 


So what's the point of this exercise? I guess I'm trying to make a counter to an argument I anticipate hearing ad nauseum over the next few days. But really, I'm trying to show that a $2.75 million cap hit over the next two years is a good deal for both Price and the Canadiens. It gives both sides a good window to see what will become of this talented young man who clearly lost his way at last year's All-Star break, but who hasn't necessarily lost it altogether. For Price, he makes a very decent wage and has two years to prove himself. For the Canadiens, should Price completely flop his contract is not an albatross and is only on the books for two years.


Could Gauthier have waited it out for a lower cap figure? Probably. Could Price have threatened to hold out from camp to get $3 million? Also probably. But neither of those moves would be beneficial to this relationship, one I believe the player and the franchise hope lasts for several more contracts after this one. 


Price said all the right things in his conversation with the Montreal media this afternoon, as he has pretty much ever since he lost his starting job to Jaroslav Halak last season. He twice repeated that a starting job "is not given, it's earned," noting he learned that the hard way last year. I've gone on record as believing last season taught Price an enormous lesson and knocked him off the pedestal he was on after being voted as a starting goalie in the All-Star game. Many brought up his petulant behaviour in his lone playoff start against the Washington Capitals as a sign that he hadn't grown up at all, and that may very well be true.


But I'm still willing to give this guy the benefit of the doubt because the risk/reward ship has already sailed for him. Halak is gone, that decision's been made, so Price had better fulfill some of that tremendous potential. 

Personally, I believe he will.

A peek into the Salary Cap crystal ball

Though Carey Price remains unsigned, the Canadiens salary cap situation this season appears pretty clear. And while there isn't a ton of room to spare, Pierre Gauthier should have some money left in the kitty to acquire some help at the trade deadline should he see fit.

But what about next year? Will the Canadiens be in any position to do some free agency shopping next summer? Will the situation become more flexible? Probably not.

Bob Gainey and Gauthier's spree last summer will still hamper the club next season, with Michael Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez and Jaroslav Spacek taking up over $22 million between them. Add in Tomas Plekanec and Price (assuming he signs a deal for two or more years), and you may be looking at upwards of $30 million tied up in six players. Travis Moen ($1.5 million), Lars Eller ($1.27 million, including bonuses) and P.K. Subban ($875,000) are the only other players under contract for 2011-12.

If the cap for the 2011-12 remains relatively stable, the Canadiens will likely have about $25 million to fill out the remaining 13 or 14 spots on the roster, again depending on what happens with Price's contract. 

A sizeable chunk of that money will likely be earmarked for Andrei Markov, assuming he's still around after the trade deadline. An extremely conservative estimate would have Markov re-signing for an average of $6 million a year, though I believe he could get considerably more on the open market.


But while Markov is the one who will likely get most of the attention, there's another defenceman on the roster who may present an equally difficult conundrum for Gauthier.

Josh Gorges will be a restricted free agent after this season, one of four Habs rearguards with expiring contracts (Roman Hamrlik and Hal Gill are the others). I highly doubt Hamrlik and Gill will be brought back, but I have to believe Gorges has been identified as a member of the core group that needs to be locked up long term.


Gorges just turned 26 on Aug. 14 and last spring established himself as a key penalty killer and shutdown defenceman for the Habs. Last year's playoffs provided a league-wide showcase for Gorges as he was matched up against the two most dangerous players in the world in the first two rounds and shone.

Over the past two seasons Gorges has missed only one game, tying for the team lead in games played both years. Durability is definitely worth something. As far as his penalty killing is concerned, he and Gill were the only two Montreal defencemen among the regular top six who gave up fewer power play goals against when they were on the ice as the team gave up when they were off the ice. 

For those who may think that penalty killing prowess was largely due to playing with Gill, consider that Gorges allowed the fewest goals against per 60 minutes of shorthanded ice time on the team in 2008-09. In fact, his on-ice/off-ice difference in power play goals against per 60 minutes was 3.43 two years ago, and dipped to 0.33 playing with Gill this past season.


But his skill-set and potential for continued growth makes Gorges a difficult player to price, since his value is not measured in goals and assists, but rather the complicated, headache-inducing stats I referred to earlier.


Looking around the league for similar type players, I found three potential comparables for Gorges who all suggest it may cost the Canadiens more than they're willing to spend to retain him. They are Dan Girardi of the New York Rangers (26 years old, forms top shutdown pairing with Marc Staal), Jeff Schultz of the Washington Capitals (24 years old, team's top defensive player) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic of the San Jose Sharks (23 years old, same as above).


Gorges will be older than all three of these players when his contract expires, but in terms of games played he's in the ballpark with all of them (Gorges - 328 GP, Girardi - 280 GP, Schultz - 247 GP, and Vlasic - 309 GP). All three of these players were signed to four-year contracts hovering around $3 million per year. Vlasic is entering the second year of his $3.1 million per year deal, while both Schultz ($2.75 million a year) and Girardi ($3.25 million) each signed their contracts this summer. You could add Nicklas Hjalmarsson's four-year deal at $3.5 million per to the list as well, though that came as a result of an offer sheet.


Speaking of which, if Gorges' contract negotiations are handled the way Price's have been, could he be open to an offer sheet himself?

If indeed Gorges gets a deal worth about $3 million, and Markov somehow signs for a $6 million cap hit, that would theoretically leave about $16 million to sign four defencemen, seven forwards and a backup goalie. This is when you have to hope players on entry level deals produce big, guys like Eller and Subban this year and eventually Louis Leblanc, Danny Kristo, Alexander Avtsin and others.

Because even though Hamrlik, Gill and probably Andrei Kostitsyn will come off the books to free up nearly $11 million after this season, it doesn't look as though the Canadiens will get any cap relief for quite some time. 

Other tidbits:

- CBC News reporter Michel Godbout caused a bit of a stir on Twitter today when he tweeted that Price plans to hold out unless he gets $3 million a year out of Gauthier. That led Quebecor's crack staff over at the QMI News Agency to write up a whole story based on a tweet. Brilliant. Later, RDS put out a story that Price's agent Gerry Johansson feels negotiations have progressed, but there is a long way to go (Uhh, Gerry? Training camp is a little over two weeks away. How long are we talking about here?). Frankly, I have little doubt that Price wants $3 million a year, but I have huge doubts that he would holdout. Or as Godbout put it, "strike."


- RDS also reported on Monday that Markov has begun skating on his own, which is an encouraging sign that perhaps his agent Don Meehan wasn't blowing hot air when he said his client may in fact be back in time for the start of the season. Basically, any time Markov returns before the calendar turns to November would have to be considered a miracle, so this news may make Markov's orthopedic surgeon a candidate for sainthood.


- Finally, my buddy Eric Engels made his case for why the Habs should reach out to Bill Guerin as a free agent. I can't say I disagree, assuming Guerin is willing to play for $1 million. He'd be a great addition to the team even if he's lost a step (you don't have to be particularly quick to play on the power play). He'd add some insurance against the strong likelihood that either Kostitsyn or Benoit Pouliot - or both - will not live up to their top-6 forward billing.

Will past be prologue?

I would say it's pretty likely. In fact, there's not much about the Pierre Gauthier regime to suggest much has changed since Bob Gainey was in charge, including the fact that Gainey himself remains on staff as an advisor/consultant/puppet master to Gauthier.

One of the defining philosophies of the Gainey era was a reluctance to negotiate new contracts with free agents until the very last, possible moment, by which point it was often too late. The guiding principle applied to just about every impending free agent who played under Gainey.

At the end of last season, after all the players had made their rounds through the media and not long after Andrei Markov told us his priority this summer was to rehab from knee surgery and not necessarily think about a new contract, I asked Gauthier whether or not the injury would affect his plans of negotiating a contract extension with his best player.

"Not at all," Gauthier said. "We know he's a good player."

Of course, nowhere in that answer did Gauthier actually say that he planned on opening negotiations for an extension with Markov, and when pressed further on it, Gauthier clammed up. Would you expect any different? I didn't, but I had to try.

So here we are, three months later, and my buddy Jean-Francois Chaumont of Radio-Canada is reporting that Markov's agent Don Meehan has not received an invitation to the negotiating table from Gauthier. 

Shocking? Hardly.

But one would think the Canadiens will have learned from their past errors and would want to eliminate this potential distraction before it gathers steam. Gainey admitted it became one two years ago when half the team had their contracts up for renewal, and last season it dogged Tomas Plekanec as he found himself among the league's scoring leaders and proved to be the team's most durable and consistent forward.

Meehan told Chaumont that Gauthier wants to wait for the right moment to start negotiations for Markov. I would suggest that moment is right now.

If Markov is around for training camp - and Meehan suggests it's not out of the question that he will be recovered in time for the season opener - then does anyone honestly believe his contract status will not become THE story of the pre-season? Aside from the possibility that certain pockets of the media might start pushing for Louis Leblanc to make the team, this would be the number one talking point of camp.

On the other hand, the argument could be made that players care little about what the media talk about or what fans stress about, but precedent would suggest that if Markov remains unsigned by the start of the season then anything is possible with regards to his future in Montreal.

Markov could be a jewel of the 2011 free agent, one that will potentially include the likes of Joe Thornton, Zdeno Chara, Brad Richards, Patrice Bergeron and Tomas Kaberle, not to mention restricted free agents like Jeff Carter and Shea Weber.

Markov will be 32 on July 1, 2011, which may seem old but compared to other defencemen of his stature actually isn't. If I'm Meehan, or Markov for that matter, I'm pushing for a five-year contract in the $30 to $35 million range.

And that's where things get dicey for Gauthier. Does he want to commit that kind of money to a player who has had two major injuries in the past 10 months? Or one who will represent a $6 to $7 million cap hit at age 37? Or does he want upwards of $30 million in cap space tied up in only five players? Then there's the matter of the collective bargaining agreement expiring next September, a moment that appears to be the start of phase two of the NHL's attempt to mask its business deficiencies by further weakening the players in their "partnership" with the league. (UPDATE Aug 30, 2010 - Sorry, but I screwed up the expiry of the CBA, which is in September of 2012 and not next year. Still, it remains a factor to consider when signing Markov to an extension).

With all these factors to consider, perhaps it's wise on Gauthier's part to at least see how Markov recovers from this latest knee surgery before entering into negotiations. The problem is that with impending free agency comes trade speculation, especially as the deadline begins to approach, and even more especially if the Canadiens are struggling in the standings come February.

The thought of trading Markov away for what always amounts to prospects and/or draft picks at the deadline is probably revolting to most Habs fans, and rightfully so. Markov is without a doubt the best draft pick the Canadiens have made in the last 20 years, a player who developed here and has grown to love the city and his team. Being jettisoned as a rental is no way for that service history to come to an end, particularly when you consider how Saku Koivu departed here.

But besides sentimentality, Markov remains a top-end NHL defenceman who would undoubtedly garner tons of interest should he be allowed to hit the open market while still in the prime of his career.

The last time he was a free agent, Markov agreed to a contract after the season but prior to July 1. It was a deal that many people believed was somewhat outlandish at the time, but which now represents one of the best bargains in the NHL. Will that same scenario play itself out again in spite of all the warning signs Gauthier is facing?

I'm not sure, but it's looking more and more like we're going to find out, for better or for worse.

Beyond comprehension

I was busy covering the Rogers Cup tennis tournament this evening when word began filtering its way through the press box that the Canadiens had traded away AHL All-Star goalie Cedrick Desjardins to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Karri Ramo.

Once I got past the initial feelings of disbelief, it was confusion that took over my thoughts as I tried to figure why - in the same summer you traded away perhaps the finest young goalie in the league, let alone the organization - you would immediately trade another promising young goalie for a castaway who has been relegated to KHL duty?

Several hours later, and I'm still wondering the same thing.

Ramo is reportedly under contract for one more year with Omsk and therefore will not be anywhere near Montreal this season. Desjardins, meanwhile, may get a chance to start in Tampa Bay sometime in the near future if Dan Ellis and Mike Smith falter. But frankly, if ever Carey Price doesn't find his game this season Desjardins might very well have been playing in Montreal this year as well.

Admittedly not a likely scenario, but a possible one nonetheless. Now, if Price were to get injured and Alex Auld proved inadequate as a full-time starter, what do the Canadiens do? Turn the reins to Curtis Sanford? Robert Mayer, for God's sakes?

I'm too tired to go into this in great detail right now, but frankly even if I weren't I'm not sure I'd have much more to add. 

The move is, in a word, baffling.

A philosophical change?

It's hard to know for sure, but with the last two Canadiens first round draft picks foregoing the colege route in favour of junior hockey over the past couple of weeks, one has to wonder whether or not Pierre Gauthier and the organization as a whole has decided to push its prospects in this direction.

We'll never know to what extent Gauthier pressured Louis Leblanc to leave Harvard for the Montreal Juniors or Jarred Tinordi to do the same to Notre-Dame in favour of the London Knights, but I would find it difficult to believe the Canadiens did not at least slightly nudge the two of them towards junior hockey.

That would be a pretty major philosophical shift, one that may have began when Max Pacioretty left the University of Michigan after his freshman year to sign with the Habs. Ironically enough, that's a case where leaving the player in school may have ultimately been the right call.

From an organizational viewpoint, the collegiate option looks like it has the best of both worlds. You have four years to evaluate a player before signing him to a professional contract, thereby slowing the free agency clock, but also delaying that player's arrival in Montreal. The case of David Fischer shows how a team can sometimes benefit from this, because the Canadiens didn't have to pay a dime to determine he is not NHL material (though he still may make it with another team).

Since the 2007 draft, or the year after Trevor Timmins went completely off the board to nab Fischer with the 20th overall pick, the Canadiens have used 13 of their 27 draft picks on players who were either in or heading to college. Of those, eight were selected in the third round or later. Of the remaining five who were selected in the top two rounds, Ryan McDonagh (12th overall, 2007) was traded and just signed his first pro contract with the Rangers, Pacioretty (22nd overall, 2007) is entering his third year in the pros, Danny Kristo (56th overall, 2008) is playing his second and possibly final season at North Dakota, Leblanc (18th overall, 2009) is playing with the Juniors and Tinordi (22nd overall, 2010) is heading to London.

So basically, three of the four first round picks since 2007 played two seasons of college hockey combined, and the other was traded.

Previously, both Mike Komisarek and Christopher Higgins played two years apiece in college before making the jump, while Ryan O'Byrne played three years at Cornell.

Again, I can't say for sure whether or not this is true, but it appears to me the Canadiens no longer want their top end prospects learning the game at the collegiate level. Which begs the question, why do they keep using their best picks on players they know are planning on attending college?

The coach, the goalie and the Next One

I know I promised this quite some time ago, but I went ahead and got caught up in summer laziness. So here, without further ado, are a few thoughts on what's been going on with the Habs of late. Consider it making up for lost time.


Validation for Martin


It's rare that I agree with anything Michel Bergeron says, but I actually did agree with his take on the hiring of Randy Cunneyworth as head coach of the Hamilton Bulldogs. OK, agree may be a bit too strong of a word. But a few things become clear with this decision by Pierre Gauthier, and the most important one is that the hiring was a big show of support for Jacques Martin.


As Bergeron mentions, the Canadiens have a unique dynamic when hiring a coach for their minor league affiliate because they need to continue grooming potential coaches to take over the big club. Like it or not, the Canadiens are drawing from a limited pool of coaching options because they must hire someone who can express himself in both official languages. In that sense, Cunneyworth is extremely unlikely to get promoted within the organization unless he goes out and signs up for French lessons.


When Guy Boucher was in Hamilton, there was grumbling among a large sector of the fan base to get him in Montreal as quickly as possible even though Martin had been on the job for less than one year. Much like many people didn't want Gauthier to get a French-Canadian back-up for Carey Price (assuming he's ever signed, more on that later) to avoid potential language-based controversies, hiring Cunneyworth to coach the Bulldogs takes a potential source of heat off of Martin.


Cunneyworth is a very capable coach who, having played for Martin in Ottawa, will know how to prepare players for the strict (some would say stifling) regime that awaits them in Montreal.


But Martin will no longer have to be looking over his shoulder at who's coming up from behind, because the No. 2 in the organization is simply not qualified to take the main gig.


Still, I feel Martin will have a heavy burden this season to show that he actually had a role to play in the Habs tremendous run through the playoffs last season. It's been too readily accepted that Jaroslav Halak was the one and only reason the Canadiens made the Eastern Conference final, but I believe Martin deserves some of the credit.


Just when it looked like he was repeating the same mistakes that made him a playoff bust in Ottawa - refusing to shorten his bench, losing match-up battles - Martin took his game up a notch. Down 3-1 to the Washington Capitals, Martin took it to his counterpart Bruce Boudreau and won the battle. Yes, Halak was outstanding, but there was a game plan surrounding him, one that worked to unlikely success for two playoff rounds.


Now Martin has to prove he can shape another game plan around Price and with the other pieces he's been given. He's adding P.K. Subban for an entire season, will Martin give him the liberty to express his offensive flair and creativity? Will Lars Eller be allowed to make mistakes as a rookie and play through them, or will he find himself on the bench for long stretches like Benoit Pouliot? Will Martin be able to coax something, anything, out of Andrei Kostitsyn on a consistent basis, especially now that the distraction of his little brother is gone? Will he be able to absorb the loss of Andrei Markov for the first couple of months now that it isn't coinciding with Martin having to learn about all his players for the first time?


These are all questions that Martin needs to answer this season, but he will do so secure in the knowledge there's no one in Hamilton knocking on the door looking to steal his job.


It's getting dicey with Price


Clearly, Carey Price's agent Gerry Johansson is trying to play a little hardball with the Habs, likely trying to squeeze a bit more term and money out of Gauthier. But I think Gauthier knows that ultimately, Price will have to come crawling to him and accept whatever he's offering. Will he really want to holdout when half the fan base (if not more) already resents the fact he was retained and Halak was shipped out of town?


When Gauthier last discussed the negotiations with Price, he went out of his way to mention that he is a restricted free agent with no arbitration rights. In other words, all the leverage is on the Canadiens side. The only recourse available to Price to put a little pressure on the other side is to hold out and leave Gauthier to ponder to possibility of starting the season with Alex Auld as his starting goaltender.


It really wouldn't be the smartest course of action for Price, especially if he wants to avoid the headache of getting his own fans off his back while he tries to re-establish himself as one of the league's most promising young goalies. But on the other hand, Gauthier might be wise not to be too vicious in his negotiating either, because if this is the goalie of the future any bad blood will wind up costing the team in the future.


The Blackhawks walked away from their Stanley Cup-winner today after Antti Niemi was awarded a $2.75 million contract by an arbiter. Niemi becomes an unrestricted free agent as a result, but this really has very little impact on what eventually happens to Price. Niemi is 26, Price is 22. Niemi has won a Stanley Cup, Price was won a series in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And finally, Niemi is a UFA, Price is an RFA with no arbitration rights, as Gauthier so menacingly pointed out.


And for anyone who thinks the Habs will sign Niemi and trade away Price, stop it right now. Too much time and heartache has been invested in Price at this point for the team to cut its losses. Say what you will about how he was handled, and we can see now that Price was probably rushed to the NHL, but he is not a hopeless case. The Habs need to see if he can recover and continue his development. In fact, they don't really have much of a choice because they can still come out of this investment a winner if Price blossoms as he should. To see that happen in another uniform would be simply too painful.


Leblanc sees the light


While working on a story for The Gazette on education in the QMJHL I found myself in the Montreal Juniors offices a couple of weeks ago, and the decision facing Louis Leblanc was obviously a hot topic for team president Martin Routhier. Juniors GM and head coach Pascal Vincent gave up a lot to get Leblanc's rights from Chicoutimi, former first round pick Guillaume Asselin and the team's first-rounder in 2011 (though that draft pick and another would have come back to Montreal if Leblanc decided not to leave Harvard). Routhier was adamant that the best place for Leblanc was playing with the Juniors if he hoped to have a career in the NHL.


It appears Leblanc and his agent Pat Brisson (who no longer has to be referred to as an adviser) agreed with Routhier's assessment. And frankly, so do I. Leblanc was not playing enough hockey at Harvard, and considering the talent on that team I have no idea why they did so poorly last season. Playing with the Juniors (assuming the Canadiens don't assign Leblanc to Hamilton, which would be shocking) will give Leblanc a better chance to make the Canadian junior team because he'll arrive on the same footing as everyone else. Last year Leblanc had to write an exam during the final selection camp in Regina. This year he should have no such problems, even though he would likely be taking a few courses at McGill while playing for the Juniors.


But ultimately, it will speed up Leblanc's hockey development and give him the best chance to make the Canadiens within the next two or three years. Plus, if ever hockey doesn't work out, he can always return to Harvard and finish his degree later.


It's a win-win situation for Leblanc, and a promising sign for the Canadiens.


Moore signs for a pittance


For the first time in his professional hockey career, Dominic Moore signed a two-year contract with the Tamps Bay Lightning at a very reasonable price tag of $1.1 million per season. He proved to be a valuable player in the playoffs, and at 30 years of age (as of Tuesday) still has some good hockey left in him.


I still fail to understand why he wasn't brought back to Montreal, especially at a price that is $250,000 lower than what Pouliot will pull in this season. Let's hope Maxim Lapierre continues his performance from last season's playoffs, but I got the impression that Moore played a big role in Lapierre's resurgence.


Koivu hails Markov as captain material


Speaking from Finland to Richard Labbe of La Presse, Saku Koivu feels Markov would make a fine Montreal Canadiens captain. I've been on record as saying that Markov was my original choice to fill that role, and Markov himself said he hadn't been asked and wouldn't necessarily say no if he was.


There's been a bit of a manufactured controversy lately on whether or not Markov should learn French, an issue that haunted Koivu through the latter part of his record run as Canadiens captain. But really, I don't know if that will play into Martin's final decision, because it is clearly his decision to make.


After last season's playoffs I shifted my opinion on this, and I now feel Brian Gionta is the man for the job. As far as "lead by example" leadership is concerned, Gionta is the perfect candidate because his effort level never drops on the ice, and only goes higher when the situation warrants it. In the dressing room, he is just as good as Koivu was at saying a lot to reporters without saying a whole lot. The team definitely likes that about him. 


Timmins on thin ice?   


The Canadiens hiring of former New York Islanders assistant GM and head of amateur scouting Ryan Jankowski as an amateur scout has to be a source of mild concern for Canadiens director of player recruitment and development Trevor Timmins.


Gauthier's decision to revamp Timmins' scouting staff was the first sign that his reign as the Canadiens draft guru could be coming to an end, and Jankowski's arrival could be another sign.


Then again, it could mean absolutely nothing. With Subban set to make his mark with the team this year and other Timmins draft picks like Alexander Avtsin and Leblanc coming down the pipe, maybe the Canadiens will be able to unearth an impact player from the large number of solid-yet-unspectacular players he has drafted over the years.


Speaking of which, 2010 first-rounder Jarred Tinordi (who cost the Canadiens their second-rounder as well) was cut today from the US Junior team's selection camp roster, meaning he will have no opportunity to try out for the team that will compete in Buffalo at Christmas time. Not a very good sign, especially when Brock Nelson, a big centre that would have been available at the Canadiens original slot of 27th overall, will be attending the camp.


Governance lessons from Toronto? 


Very quickly on this one, but I don't see where Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment president Richard Peddie gets off telling Geoffrey Molson he's making a big mistake by taking over from Pierre Boivin as president of his own team. 


Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Leafs are not exactly a model of governance in professional sports. I see his point, that Boivin is a good man and did a great job as president of the team, and also that owning a team while serving as president can be problematic. But I'm not sure a team that had been mired by meddlesome ownership prior to the arrival of Brian Burke should be giving out advice on how other owners should handle their own teams. Just my two cents.

New commenting rules

This is just a quick note to say I've switched the settings that allowed just anyone to comment on the blog. You now need to sign in via OpenID in order to post a comment, just so you'll be identified to all the other readers when you spout off your opinion on what I wrote.

I really hope this doesn't discourage people to comment on the site. I love it when something I write provokes long, drawn out debates/discussions. But I find that taking part in such a debate with four or five different anonymous users can be aggravating. OpenID is very easy to use, and will work if you're a member of basically any website in the world (Google, Yahoo!, Hotmail, Facebook etc...).

Anyhow, let me know if you run into any problems with the new system, and if you refuse to sign in you can contact me via e-mail by clicking on my profile link on the right hand side of the page.

I am working on (which means thinking about, which means procrastinating) something about Jacques Martin that I hope to have posted very soon.  

Call me an apologist

I wouldn't blame you if you did. For the amount of times I've used this space to defend Carey Price in the face of seemingly undeniable evidence that he is ever so obviously destined to be a bust, it could seem like I'm on Price's payroll.


But I'm not. Trust me.


However, from time to time I read things that inspire me to try and interject a little dose of perspective on things. Today, it happened twice.


The first was Richard Labbe's piece in La Presse where he claims an enormous number of hockey people have told him Price does not have the mental makeup to succeed in Montreal. This is a theory that has gained pretty widespread approval, though I'm not quite sure why. Because the kid likes to party? Because he's shown his frustration from time to time?


I'm not sure what kind of person it takes to succeed in Montreal. Yes, people love hockey here. Yes, people have high standards here. But do the Nashville Predators as an organization tolerate losing more than the Canadiens do? Don't all athletes making millions of dollars have an inherent pressure to perform? I suppose a player for the Canadiens needs to enjoy that "spice" of Montreal, as Bob Gainey put it, but I refuse to believe it takes someone with superhuman powers to overcome the pressure from the fans and media here.


Then, refreshingly, I was reading a blog post from Robert L of Habs Eyes on the Prize on how fans need to cut Price some slack, how he's going through the same growing pains everyone does, how he shouldn't be branded for the rest of his career just because of a few transgressions early on. It was refreshing.


But then I read a comment in response to the blog, and it led me right back on this path to writing in the wee hours of the morning about just what Price has accomplished thus far, no matter what people may perceive or think.


I know everyone has heard the comparisons of where Price stands with some of the greats of the game in terms of his age and what he's done. I'm also aware it gets tiresome. But the reason it is brought up so often is because it needs to be said.


Here are Price's career numbers at age 22 (he turns 23 on August 16):
134 GP, 60-48-18, 2.73 GAA, .912 SP


Here are the career numbers of some of the league's other top goalies at the same age, in no particular order:


Martin Brodeur - 91 GP, 48-23-14, 2.45 GAA, .909 SP
Roberto Luongo - 129 GP, 35-57-12, 2.74, .915
Ryan Miller - 15 GP, 6-8-1, 2.63, .902
Tomas Vokoun - 38 GP, 12-18-4, 3.04, .905
Cam Ward - 88 GP, 44-29-8, 3.12, .892
Marc-Andre Fleury - 138 GP, 57-57-17, 3.10, .901


The list is a short one (it is by no means exhaustive) largely because many of the best goalies in the NHL today hadn't even made the NHL at age 22. They include Miikka Kiprusoff, Niklas Backstrom, Tim Thomas, Henrik Lundqvist, Evgeni Nabokov, Marty Turco, Jonas Hiller, Pekka Rinne, Dan Ellis and many, many others.


The point here is clear, that Price has gained a lot of valuable experience before many goalies even made the league, and among those who did Price measures up pretty darn well.


Some might respond that bringing Price to the NHL so early was a mistake, and it's a fair argument to make. Gainey never hid the fact his management, or mis-management, of Price was based on his desire to get the goalie this experience that will serve him well in the future. Gainey did so seemingly to the detriment of the team, and definitely to the detriment of Jaroslav Halak.


But in Boston we see a perfect comparison to Price, the one that took the more conventional route of learning in the minors and paying his dues before earning his starter's position. Tuukka Rask just completed his first full season in the NHL, even though he's five months older than Price, and he was dominant. You see a 22-12-5 record with a 1.97 GAA and .931 save percentage and you say, "See? Price should have waited." Except who knows how Rask will respond to being the clear starter? Does anyone have any idea how he reacts to adversity? Has his head gotten used to being heaped with praise?


Perhaps, but perhaps not. I would say that the most valuable "experience" Price has gained came this season when he was knocked down a peg and saw his own mortality, for lack of a better term. He said it himself after the season that he got a wake up call watching Halak take his job and realized that he had stopped improving. Of course, talk is easy. Now that talk needs to be put into action.


Except while everyone is hoping Price shows a miraculously dramatic improvement this coming season, the fact is he doesn't have that far to go.


Yes, his won-loss record was atrocious at 13-20-5, and for whatever reason the Canadiens became a horrible team whenever Price was manning the net. A lot of people have some cockamamie explanations for why that was the case, like, for instance, Price didn't work as hard as Halak so his teammates didn't work for him. But his won-loss record needs to be looked at in the proper perspective.


The goalie stats at Behind the Net show that Price was really put behind the eight ball by his teammates more often than not. For starters, Price received just about the worst offensive support in the NHL among goalies who played at least 20 games. Only three goalies - Brian Boucher, Tim Thomas and Chris Osgood - were on the ice for fewer 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes of ice time than Price's 1.87. Now, it's not as if the Habs were lighting it up for Halak seeing as he's at 2.30, but still, that's better than 19 other goalies. Price's goal support was better than only three.


When a team is leading, especially the Jacques Martin-coached Canadiens, they have a tendency to shore up defensively. When you're trailing, or even tied, risks need to be taken and that subjects your goalie to higher quality scoring opportunities. It's true that Price appeared to rarely bail his teammates out when those chances came, but it's also true he saw an inordinate number of them.


The biggest statistical difference between Price and Halak came on the penalty kill. Price allowed over a full goal more than Halak for every 60 minutes they each played while down a man. Price was at 5.99 goals against per 60 shorthanded minutes, while Halak was at 4.96. But even here, there's an odd discrepancy to how their teammates played in front of each goalie. Price spent 5.87 minutes on the penalty kill for every 60 minutes of ice time, while Halak was only at 5.37 shorthanded minutes. 


While half a minute doesn't explain the wide gap in goals against, consider that Price's shorthanded minutes were seventh highest among goalies that played 20 games, yet his goals against was only 26th highest among that same subset. Halak, meanwhile, was 25th in the league in terms of shorthanded minutes and 42nd highest in goals against (or 12th best, depending on your perspective).


I don't profess to know why the Canadiens were such a wildly different team with Price in goal, nor am I able to figure out in any concrete way how many wins the lack of goal support and increased penalty-killing time may have cost him.


But I do know that Price will only be 23 when training camp begins, and while he has a lot to prove, he also has a lot to be proud of. In closing, I ask you this: Do you think Columbus fans should give up on Steve Mason just because he had a poor second season in the NHL at age 21?


Didn't think so.

Gauthier vindicated by Koivu deal?

While spending much of the last season trying to figure out a price point for Tomas Plekanec as he put up crazy numbers while serving as one of the league's top penalty killers, I always figured Minnesota's Mikko Koivu would be a pretty strong comparable.

Except Koivu was still a ways away from his date with unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2011, so the lone remaining player - at least in my eyes - was Vancouver's Ryan Kesler. And as it turned out, Plekanec got the exact same six-year, $30 million contract Kesler did.

But then the Wild went and blew the doors off both of those deals by signing Koivu to a seven-year, $47.25 million contract on Thursday night, a whopping $6.75 million cap hit for a player who has never topped his output of 22 goals and 71 points of the past season.

Mike Gillis must be really smiling these days, because of the three players mentioned here he has the one with the most upside. Kesler is the youngest of the three at 25, he had the best numbers of the three with 25 goals and 75 points, and he has the most size of the three (granted, by only two pounds over Koivu) at 6-foot-2, 202 pounds.

But in light of what Koivu just received, I would think Pierre Gauthier has to be pretty happy with himself for locking up Plekanec at $5 million a season.

The Minnesota Star Tribune's Michael Russo reported in the immediate aftermath of breaking Koivu's contract signing that both he and Wild GM Chuck Fletcher agreed that Koivu could fetch $7 million a season on the open market next summer. 

With the CBA entering it's final season in 2011 and Donald Fehr about to take over the reins of the player's union, I'm not entirely sure Koivu could have fetched that much in that environment of uncertainty. But his value, in my eyes, is not far from that neighbourhood, maybe one or two blocks away.

So if that's the case, where would Plekanec's value had been on the open market, or Kesler's for that matter? Definitely north of $5 million a season, despite the cries of shock and dismay coming from some corners of the hockey media like HNIC's Elliotte Friedman and the Globe and Mail's James Mirtle, just to name a couple.

When a follower on Twitter mentioned to Russo just after he broke the Koivu signing that Plekanec was as good if not better than him, Russo's response was, "Give me a break man. I just coughed up a lung." ESPN's EJ Hradek quickly backed him up by writing, "Mikko Koivu much better than Tomas Plekanec...Period."

Oh really? Much better? Why exactly? 

Here's what the straight numbers say:

Mikko Koivu

Age 27

Regular Season

362 GP - 79G - 176A - 255pts - plus-10 - 0.70 ppg

Playoffs

11GP - 5G - 1A - 6pts - minus-1 - 0.55 ppg

Tomas Plekanec

Age 27

Regular Season

393 GP - 103G - 151A - 254pts - plus-25 - 0.65 ppg

Playoffs

40GP - 8G - 16A - 24pts - minus-8 - 0.60 ppg

Pretty similar, wouldn't you say? But when dealing with all-around players like these, the normal statistics don't really suffice. Which is why we're lucky we live in an age where you can delve a little deeper into a player's value to a team.

For instance, both Koivu and Plekanec are their respective team's primary penalty killers at the centre position, with Koivu logging 2:10 in SH ice time per game last season and Plekanec playing 2:44 per game. The advanced statistics found at the exhaustive web site of Gabe Desjardins Behind the Net show that when Plekanec was on the ice in a penalty kill situation, his team was better off than if he wasn't. Whereas when Koivu was on the ice, his team had a worse plus/minus than when he was on the bench.

A lot of factors can go into a stat like that, namely the strength of your goalie, your fellow penalty killers and also the efficiency of the first power play units in the two conferences. But stats are stats, and they do paint a picture, as limited as that picture may be.

Some other hockeymetric aficionados count on the Corsi rating to serve as the ultimate judge of a player's value. In basic terms, the Corsi rating counts how many shot attempts (which counts shots on goal, shots that were blocked and shots that missed the net) your team has versus the attempts of the opposing team while you are on the ice. To that you can add the Relative Corsi rating, which compares a player's on-ice rating to when he is off the ice. In this category, Koivu wins big with a plus-12.5, while Plekanec is at minus-2.3.

Of course, a lot of factors go into that number as well, such as how strong (or weak) the other lines are on your team, how good your linemates are and how often you face the opposing team's best defenders.

To figure things like that out, Desjardins blesses us with quality of competition and quality of teammates stats, and in both these areas we see that Plekanec faced tougher opponents with weaker teammates than Koivu did, all the while producing at a near equal rate all season. 

Plekanec's quality of competition rating last season was 0.069, which sounds minuscule but is actually quite high. In fact, among NHL centres who played at least 20 games, Plekanec ranked 16th in quality of competition. Koivu, meanwhile, ranked 90th among centres with a 0.007 rating. Inversely, Plekanec had a quality of teammates rating of 0.166, while Koivu's was 0.205. Yet, in spite of this apparent disadvantage for Plekanec, he produced 2.07 points per 60 minutes of ice time, just a shade underneath Koivu's 2.09 points.

However, the whole point of this exercise - which I hope has not given you a headache - is not to slag Koivu or the Wild for handing him that contract. In fact, I commend Fletcher for locking up a core player who is just entering his prime, has improved his point per game totals  in each of his five seasons and who has a unique skill set in the NHL. As a big, young, strong player who covers every inch of the ice and would have been entering a contract year, he probably deserves the money and could very well have gotten it on the open market (though, again, I doubt it just because of the labour circumstances).

I just feel it needs to be reiterated how good the Plekanec contract really is when compared to Koivu's and that, as unbelievable as it may sound, $5 million a year for one of the rare do-it-all centres in the NHL is very fair, if not a bargain. Even though I didn't think so a few months ago.

I also wanted to touch briefly on some of the other Habs news to emerge Thursday, led by the apparent candidacy of Julien Brisebois to become Steve Yzerman's assistant in Tampa Bay. The Canadiens resident capologist, Brisebois was a busy boy as the Canadiens had to walk a tightrope all season to give them the wiggle room that allowed them to add Dominic Moore prior to the Olympic break.

Losing him would hurt, especially since Gauthier has never before been the head man in a cap world until now. Brisebois has an encyclopedic knowledge of the CBA. Whenever I had a question about some convoluted process such as Long Term Injury Relief or bonus overage or anything like that, Brisebois always had a quick answer that he could shoot off the top of his head. It was impressive, even though he could have been totally pulling my leg and I wouldn't have known the difference.

But as painful as a potential Brisebois departure would be, I don't know if a capologist is impossible to replace, especially seeing as RDS is reporting Gauthier already has someone in mind.

Alexander Avtsin also signed a three-year entry-level contract with the team Thursday, which makes his desire to play in North America official. I would have to think he will be bound for Hamilton eventually, but it adds some depth in an area where the team really needs some - scoring wingers with size. If Andrei Kostitsyn or Benoit Pouliot don't work out and are shipped out of here at season's end, what's in the cupboard? Max Pacioretty and not a whole lot else. The tantalizing potential of Avtsin, who was prolific as a junior in Russia, could prove to a be a wild card down the road, or maybe even as soon as this season. Kind of like Sergei Kostit... Oh, never mind.

And finally, congratulations goes out to Andrei Markov, who will officially become a Canadian citizen on Friday. I guess he finally figured that since half his pay cheque goes to the government, may as well be a citizen, right?

Can't say I blame him.