Let's be rational on Gaborik

Before Marian Mania sets in again (what is it with impending free agents named Marian that get people in Montreal so crazy?), I just want to lay out some numbers for all of you:

Exhibit A) Marian Gaborik has a cap hit this year of $6,333,333.

Exhibit B) The combined cap hit for Chris Higgins ($1.7 million) and Jaroslav Halak ($775,000) is $2,475,000.

Exhibit C) Depending on your source, the Habs available cap space is $1,064,699 (nhlscap.com) or $1,122,000 (nhlnumbers.com).

Exhibit D) In order to absorb Gaborik's contract while trading away only Higgins and Halak, the Habs would need $3,858,333 in available cap space (that's not the exact number because there's already been a few days spent on the season, but it's close enough).

That's not rocket science, folks. The discussed deal as it's being reported by RDS simply makes no sense because it would require the Habs to send more salary the other way. Maybe Steve Begin ($1,057,000) and Mathieu Dandenault ($1,725,000) get thrown in to make the numbers work, but I don't see why the Wild would want to do that.

Also, the RDS report states that a Minnesota Wild scout was at the game Saturday night even though neither Higgins nor Halak played. That scout is in fact the Wild's director of pro scouting Blair Mackasey, who lives in the West Island and is a regular visitor at the Bell Centre. It's funny, because when I saw him in the press box I thought to myself how his preence will fuel some Gaborik rumours out there, and, well, there you have it...

I don't doubt Bob Gainey has inquired about Gaborik's availability, but I just don't see how he could put together a package that would appeal to his buddy Doug Risebrough without completely ripping apart the chemistry that has taken hold of his team.

Higgins is a valuable trade chip, especially to a team like the Wild that is built on solid, two way players. Halak, of course, is an extremely valuable commodity, but not particularly for the Wild because they're already pretty set in goal with Niklas Backstrom as the starter and Josh Harding - essentially a Halak equivalent - as the cheap ($725,000) backup. Why would the Wild want Halak, unless they planned on dealing Harding to another team?

Then there's the fact that Gaborik is an injury waiting to happen. He's currently sidelined with a "lower-body injury" and has been a regular visitor to the clinic over his career, missing 57 games over the past three years with various groin injuries. His agent Ron Salcer and Risebrough haven't held contract discussions in weeks, according to Michael Russo's blog, which is pretty dialed in to everything Wild.

Russo seems to agree that Higgins is the centrepiece of discussions while the Wild would also love to get their hands on Ryan MacDonagh, which would require Gaborik to sign a long-term extension with the Habs before any trade is finalized because the organization is very high on the Minnesota native. Considering the kind of money Gaborik has already left on the table, with reports of a 10-year, $80 million deal being rejected, I don't know if Gainey's the type to offer anything better than what he's already seen.

But the crux of this whole rumour - and that's all it is, a series of rumours - remains the salary cap issues involved, now and moving forward. If Gainey did sign Gaborik long-term, that essentially guarantees Saku Koivu and/or Alex Kovalev will be playing their final games in a Habs uniform this year.

Though Montreal has gobs of cap space for next season, as Russo correctly points out, Gainey would still need to re-sign Mike Komisarek, Tomas Plekanec and Guillaume Latendresse in addition to Gaborik, while also keeping in mind that Carey Price's contract will be up in 2010 and there needs to be at least $8-$10 million left to lock him up long-term as well.

So, for the sake of argument, let's say Gaborik would warrant $9 million, Komisarek would get $5 million, Plekanec $3.5 million and Latendresse $2 million, when you add the money that needs to be saved for Price that makes nearly $30 million going to five players. Add that to the $23.3 million already on the books for 2009-10, and you get $53.3 million, or only $3.4 million less than this year's cap (one that may be on the way down along with the rest of the economy).

The numbers simply don't add up, not now, and not in the future. If Gainey wants to bet the farm on this year and hope the team's prospects can pick up the slack in the future, and if he's willing to watch Gaborik walk at the end of the year, then maybe a deal happens somehow with a lot of cap wizardry by Julien Brisebois.

But I wouldn't bet on it, because everything Gainey has done since taking the job has been measured and rational. This would be anything but.