Tuesday, June 30, 2009

A dangerous game of chicken

One thing that's refreshing in Bob Gainey's comments to the media yesterday is that, like his team's fans, he has no idea what will happen when free agency opens Wedsnesday at noon.

Yes, some fans may find that incredibly frightening, but I find it refreshing. Why? Because at least Gainey recognizes that this make-or-break plan he's concocted here could result in disaster just as easily as it could glowingly succeed.

"No, I'm not sure," Gainey said with a laugh when asked if he was confident about free agency. "It’s not a question of spending money, that’s not the problem. It's to spend it properly, to spend the right amount on the right person. If we spend too much on one position, there will be less for other positions. If we spend money on a player that doesn’t perform, we have a bigger problem than if we don’t spend the money."

Gainey appears to still be holding out hope for that big centre coming via the trade market, and he placed Alex Kovalev on the priority list by making him a contract offer Sunday. Saku Koivu and Alex Tanguay will have to wait until after July 1 to find out if they still have a role on this team.

So, for those who have lost count, Gainey has made a concrete offer to only two of his 10 unrestricted free agents, deciding to hit free agency with a shell of a team under contract.

It's a dangerous game, but one that shouldn't be blown completely out of proportion. Every year fans and media alike wait impatiently on July 1 for a wave of contract announcements to come as the clock strikes 12:05. But usually, most of the news doesn't come out until the very end of the day, and it's only the absolute top-end guys who wind up signing on Day One.

An argument could be made that Tanguay falls under that elite category, but really the only one out of the group of 10 I see being signed by the end of Canada Day is Komisarek, who will benefit from a very favourable balance of supply and demand. I'd have to think we've seen his final days in a Habs uniform if he isn't signed by today.

As far as Koivu is concerned, he's as good as gone. I find that unfortunate, but it's a reality. Koivu said that if he gets to July 1 without a signed contract, his days in Montreal are likely over. It's hard to sign a contract when one isn't even offered.

So as of right this second, if you take for granted that all the restricted free agents are re-signed, this is what your Montreal Canadiens look like:

Forwards
Higgins - Plekanec - D'Agostini
A. Kostitsyn - ??? - S. Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Lapierre - Pacioretty
Stewart - Chipchura - Laraque

Defence
Markov - ???
Hamrlik - ???
??? - O'Byrne

Goal
Price
Halak

That's a whole lot of question marks, and there should be a lot more because the line I marked down as the Habs top trio should really be no higher than third on the depth chart.

Are you scared?

UPDATE: After having a coffee, and being reminded by my ever-alert readers, I realize I forgot a few guys on my depth chart. Here goes again:

Forwards
Higgins - Plekanec - D'Agostini
A. Kostitsyn - Metropolit - S. Kostitsyn
Latendresse - Lapierre - Pacioretty
Stewart - Chipchura - Laraque

Defence
Markov - Gorges
Hamrlik - Weber
Subban - O'Byrne

Goal
Price
Halak

There, the lineup is all filled out. I smell a Cup.

6 comments:

jkr said...

I read a sportsnet.ca report yesterday that quoted Gainey as saying that he was in discussions with 5(five) teams. Anybody else see this? If it's true at least he isn't putting all his eggs in one basket.

Anonymous said...

You did not mention Gorges, Metro, or Weber ... that almost fills out the roster.

thx

Anonymous said...

on defence you forgot the ever steady
Josh Gorges. Unless you know something
that we don't? But at a cap hit of 1.1 mill.
for the next 2 years he can fill that # 4
role perfect.

Matt said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

By cup you mean Calder right?

Andy J Smith illustration said...

See? Wasn't that EASY? And Bob Gainey gets paid to do that! Easy-peasy!