Monday, January 25, 2010

Halak is saving the Habs money

The CBC's Eliotte Friedman raised a question in his must-read Monday blog about the Canadiens needing to consider trading Carey Price. His basis for coming to this opinion is that, following some conversations with scouts, there would be far more interest in the league were Price to hit the trade market than there would be for Jaroslav Halak.

The question is worth asking, I suppose, simply because it's become clear that both Halak and Price want the number one job, and right now (stressing the words "right" and "now") Halak is lighting the world on fire.

I have two problems with this, the first of which was summed up quite nicely today over at Lions in Winter. Even if every team in the NHL would show some degree of interest in Price (which is obviously an exaggeration meant to prove a point. Somehow, I don't think Vancouver or Phoenix or Boston or Pittsburgh or several others would have any interest in a new goalie), it would be practically impossible for Bob Gainey to get a strong return for him, at least not as strong as Price's actual potential. I can't see a rival GM overpaying for potential. What I do see is a bunch of GMs smelling some blood in the water and swooping in trying to steal a future franchise goalie when his value is at its lowest point.

But my other annoyance with the notion of trading away Price is that Halak is actually doing Gainey a big favour by forcing his way into the Habs net. See, when the season began, I figured Price might play himself into a big, fat contract at season's end. One that would be on par with several other players coming out of entry level deals who broke the bank on the second contracts like Paul Stastny and Anze Kopitar, among others. Which is why I thought Gainey should sign Price to an extension prior to the season to avoid that scenario from playing itself out.

While Price has not played poorly, he has not been extraordinary either. His numbers (.913 save percentage, 2.73 goals against average) are good, not great, but those numbers have been overshadowed thus far by Price's penchant for giving up bad goals. He appears to have concentration issues, which I feel has to be the most correctable fault a player can have. A lot of young people in many walks of life have trouble concentrating at the age of 22, yet that doesn't excuse Price for failing to address what has been a recurring issue for him since he's been in Montreal.

But my point here is not to pick apart Price's game, firstly because I don't know nearly enough about goaltending to do it, but most importantly because it is irrelevant to what I'm trying to point out. And that is with every game Halak plays, he takes some contract negotiating leverage away from Price. The more Halak wins, the more he plays, the less it will cost to re-sign Price in the off-season. At least in theory.

Of course, there is the issue of what kind of contract Halak will seek in the offseason, but I honestly don't think that is of any concern to Gainey. Let's say Halak is kept past the trade deadline, even though I don't think that will happen, and let's also say that he gets the lion's share of the games the rest of the way. If Halak leads Montreal to a playoff berth and maybe even makes things interesting in the first round or - now don't laugh - somehow manages to get Montreal into the second round, then his value will shoot through the roof. Price, meanwhile, will have trouble making too many demands as to the kind of money he's seeking. Perhaps Price chooses to go for a shorter term, say two or three years, but it probably wouldn't be for huge dollars.

All the while, Halak is still a restricted free agent, one that could potentially attract an offer sheet from a rival club, but one that would more likely be traded either at the draft or in the offseason à la Phil Kessel, though obviously the return would not be anywhere close to what Brian Burke and the Leafs gave up. Still, Gainey could hold a pretty serious auction for Halak and land either a package of draft picks and prospects, or maybe even an NHL player or two.

Now, if Price is making a reasonable amount of money, say $3 million next season, then re-signing Tomas Plekanec suddenly becomes a far easier proposition. Already, we're starting to see Plekanec come back to earth a little bit, though he is still having a phenomenal season at nearly a point a game. But all that attention from opposing coaches and that excessive ice time in penalty killing situations appears to be catching up to him, just a little bit. Still, his versatility and relative consistency over his career (not counting last year) puts him among the top two centres available on the free agent market alongside Patrick Marleau, who isn't even playing centre right now.

If Plekanec is allowed to hit the market on July 1, he could really cash in, as I've already stated. But if Halak keeps this up and Price keeps being merely above average, then perhaps Gainey could find himself in a win-win situation next year with both Price and Plekanec in the lineup and with some nice new assets in the system thanks to Halak.

22 comments:

Anonymous said...

Gainey is unfairly putting Price in the limelight to try to keep his job. He should still be in the AHL, end of story.

Sign Cedrick Desjardins to a long term cheap deal. Sign Halak for a medium term medium cheap deal. Deal Price to whatever idiot would want the headcase and scoop up whatever's available this summer.

But Bergeron (who was anglo fans public enemy n.1 earlier this year) is gonna get PAID by another team.

It makes sense that Halak is where he's at, he developed on a slower pace. Price's fragile psyche has been shattered since round 2 against philly.

But no, the price circle jerk must never end. THANKS BOB.

V said...

If Canadiens management considers Price the better long-term option, I am great with that. If they don't, I am great with that as well. They know more about the situation than ANY fan and I am content to support them in whatever they do. Why get worked up about something we know so little about?

Arpon, thanks for reminding us about Price's age and the challenges most any 22 year old is going to have with confidence, focus, etc. I have little doubt he will overcome these as he matures. It distresses me to see people refer to young men under the sort of pressure Price lives with as a 'headcase'. What a cowardly judgment. I doubt any of them can even imagine the pressures he deals with regularly from the plushy comfort of their sofa. If they did, they would likely be more generous in their assessment.

Anvilcloud said...

This is a good take on the situation. The point about all the chatter is that BG should be open to any possibility as I'm sure he is. Maybe he could get a very "strong return" for Carey. Suppose that he can, what should he then do?

Arpon Basu said...

If he gets a "strong return" then fine, go ahead and deal him. But to me, a "strong return" is a prospect of the highest order, meaning a can't miss. In the eyes of many, I think Price is still a "could miss," which is a downgrade from his can't miss status only two years ago. I can't see a rival GM offering his top prospect for Price unless that prospect is a middle of the road one. That's why I agree that trading Price is a losing proposition.

Darksyde said...

I'm of the opinion that maybe, just maybe, that having Halak in direct competition with Price is hurting Carey more than helping. Why? Suddenly he has to worry about playing better than Jaro, which IMO, is leading to his poor starts. Once he lets a couple of early goals, he starts concentrating on his game. How many games lately has he crapped the bed in the first, to play stellar the next couple of periods? Jaro may be a case of, "Buy low, sell high." once the distraction of the Halak is gone, (with some nice return in tow), I see Carey playing MUCH better.

Anonymous said...

Gainey's job is Price, end of story. I would be VERY surprised if he's even thinking about dealing Price. Part of the reason Carbo got fired is Price v Halak.

He sent D'Agostini and Max Pac down I wish he had the guts to send Price on a "conditioning" stint. AKA get him to more than one sports psychologist ASAP.

Essentially Gainey broke him and I fear that might be the end of that.

With Desjardins' stats in the ECHL and AHL I think we have a great career back up or a nice little surprise.

Anonymous said...

THE DISTRACTION OF HALAK WINNING GOD DAMNED GAMES????

I'm sorry but that is NOT a distraction. Your country being annihilated is a distraction not a teammate being a better a player.

Deux poids deux mesures sacrament...

Darksyde said...

How did Price become "#1"? By outplaying Huet. You're 22 in one of the most pressure filled (if not THE most) market in the NHL, who's been told he's "The Next Goaltending Savior", and suddenly he finds himself in the same position Huet was in just before Huet was traded. Being outplayed by the backup.
Gosh, you're right. No distraction in that at all.

Anonymous said...

No that's not a distraction it's called being a goaltender in the NHL. There is pretty much always a backup on that bench and if you can't deal with that you have no business being behind the mask.

Also you forget that Halak was equally thrust into the first string goalie position when Huet and Aebischer were shitting the bed.

I'm not trying to be a dick here but you gotta step back and hold pro players accountable. You guys do such a good job at that for other players on the roster.

Darksyde said...

I don't disagree with you, at least not totally. But Price has all the pressure that Marc-Andre Fleury had piled on him when he was (prematurely) brought into the NHL, but multiplied by a bunch with it being in Montreal.
Like it or not, it is a distraction for a young, immature goalie. Fleury, after his less than stellar start to his career, was treated with patience, and was given time to develop. I don't think Price will have that luxury, unfortunately. Trade Halak while the value is high, sign a veteran goalie to mentor Price and help him continue his development.

bryne said...

We have a goalie in Montreal who is faced with the pressure of 'if you lose' you sit. Not just the distractions of the Habs media which he seems to handle well, but of representing and starting for his country at the Olympics. Still is manages to win at a .625 percentage over the last year. Is in the top 5 in save % in the league, AND WE WANT TO TRADE HIM and put faith in someone who - if he lives up to his potential - might do what the one guy is doing right now? .... UNABASHED FOOLISHNESS

Arpon Basu said...

If Price is unable to deal with competition from his own backup, that's a major problem. I agree that he may be putting too much pressure on himself because Halak is performing, but I think it's something that he needs to overcome because if he wilts under that pressure, then he has no chance under playoff pressure, as we've already seen. No, I think the competition from Halak is good for his development, I just think the Habs have already identified him as their goalie of the future (and I agree with them on that) so it's time to cash in one of your assets to fill one of the many holes littered through the rest of the roster

MathMan said...

Like what? Goalies are essential to teams but they are very poor trading assets because the supply always outstrips the demand. Outside the established elite guys, GMs always think they can find a "good enough" goaltender fairly easily. Price and Halak are both much better than "good enough", but that doesn't mean a rival GM will value him as such. It seems quite unlikely that Gainey could get a valuable return for Price and even less likely for Halak. He's not going to improve his team by trading either, there isn't a hole he could fill productively by sacrificing the one team holding his team together. He should hang on to both as long as possible, IMHO. Maybe once the team settles down into a system where they can occasionally get by with "good enough" goaltending he should consider it, but not before.

By the way, LOL@the person saying Price should be in the AHL, by the way. The part that annoys me the most about this debate is the widespread notion that Price has been bad. He's actually been pretty good. .913 is not a bad goaltender. .913 is a goalie that could be your starter. It's just not Vezina-level, which is what Halak has been providing. This is about Halak being mind-blowingly good, not Price being bad. But this is Montreal, where we have the worst fans in the NHL far more often than the best, and we like to hate our own players more than we like them...

Arpon Basu said...

What I meant is that Halak can be used as a trade chip after the season. If a team gets desperate and offers a reasonably good player at the deadline, then jump on it. If not, trade him at the draft or over the summer.

john deere said...

If Gainey wants Desjardins to be the back up next year wouldn't it be wise to trade Halak after the Olympics and let Desjardins start a half a dozen games to see if he is ready for the NHL? If he is not then Gainey has the summer to shop for an experienced back up.

Imo, the situation Price found himself in is quite different than the one Halak finds himself in now. When the GM of the club you're playing uses the fifth overall pick to draft a goalie, the present starting goalie at that time has been relegated to back up duty or is going to be sent packing. It is only a matter of when, not if. When you are challenging a fifth overall pick for the starting job (like Halak is now) you are fighting a losing battle that you have no chance at winning.

I agree with what someone else posted here before and that is to make sure you sign Price to a long-term deal before trading Halak.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us, Arpon.

Anonymous said...

Price SHOULD have been given a full AHL season. Not only would he have been better and less of a mental pussy it would have been showing confidence in Halak's sellability. On top of being the fair thing to do in that situation. Robert just got too excited with his new toy...

Obviously he won't be realistically going to the AHL now.


Anglos saying MTL has the worst fans is another way of saying "I hate french people". It's like why do you even support this team? You're like Malcolm X going for the Generals. Be sens a fan or something it won't be as much of a betrayal as being the leaf fan you truly are.

End of the day no other team has a building like ours and that's BECAUSE of the fans. Take it or leave it, we are passionate and until we get a Québec national team the habs are pretty much it for us. You guys don't get that though.

Jaro and Sergei to Tampa for whatever we can get.

Super-Youppi said...

1) No ridiculous posts if you are going to remain "anonymous". Go get an account. All of us here are Habs fans.

2) It's okay to be on Team Halak or Team Price, but root for your guy, not against the other. Habs success is all that matters.

LeMatheux said...

FYI, Anon: if you're referring to me, then you should be aware that I'm a francophone. In any case, my belief that Montreal has the worst fans in the league has nothing to do with language or anything of the sort, and more with how they turn against their players at the slightest provocation, real or imagined (and 'imagined' is frankly more common), and how a game in Montreal can really quickly turns into a road game.

It's not normal for players like Brisebois, Zednik, Ryder, and Price to become targets for the boo-birds. It makes especially little sense to boo your promising young goaltender who's not having a bad season, but the fans fall for it anyway. That's why I think they're the worst in the league, more often than the best.

MathMan said...

Hrm, sorry. LeMatheux is MathMan, of course, in case it's not obvious.

Anonymous said...

You seem to overthink and think backwards....
gee that would be a BIG problem if Price could play well........

shmutsley said...

I am the guy that left the last anon message, just got a name

shmutsley said...

Price has no guts, he thinks of himself only, not a team player, he has proven this, trade him before the other teams realise it