Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Morning playoff check-up

The Bruins lost in overtime to the Capitals last night, giving them sole possession of seventh place, one point ahead of the Flyers and one point behind the Canadiens. All three teams have three games left to play.

The playoff picture can become much clearer tonight. If either the Rangers lose in Buffalo or the Flyers lose in Toronto in regulation and the Canadiens pick up a point in Long Island, the Habs are in the playoffs. (UPDATE 12:03 p.m. - Thanks to "hockeyzombie" for pointing out in the comments that this is blatantly wrong. The Habs would need to win to clinch a spot if either the Rangers or Flyers lose in regulation. They can also clinch if both the Rangers and Flyers lose in regulation and they get a point in Long Island.) 

If the Thrashers lose in regulation or overtime and the Flyers win, Atlanta is officially eliminated. The Rangers could lose in regulation tonight and still make it through a number of scenarios, though winning out against Toronto tomorrow and sweeping a home-and-home with the Flyers to close the season would be the easiest one.

The Bruins still might not make the playoffs, though their chances improved by over 6 per cent with that loser point last night, according to sportsclubstats.com. They have three difficult games remaining on the schedule with Buffalo and Carolina at home and in Washington to close the season. The saving grace may be that both Buffalo and especially Washington could be resting some banged up players, though the Sabres still have a good chance of finishing second in the conference. Buffalo finishes the regular season in New Jersey, which could ultimately determine that seeding.

Current playoff likelihood odds at sportsclubstats.com are Habs at 97.9 per cent, Bruins at 82.9 per cent, Flyers at 75.3 per cent, Rangers at 42.5 per cent and Thrashers at 1.4 per cent. The Islanders, still not mathematically eliminated, are nonetheless listed at 0 per cent (UPDATE 1:33 p.m. - Oops, the Islanders are indeed eliminated from playoff contention. The Gazette mentioned this morning that they would be eliminated with a loss tonight, but it's moot now seeing as the Isles can only tie the Flyers in points but would have fewer wins. Not a good day for me so far.) 

Montreal Canadiens – Sixth place, 39-32-8, 86 points
Last night – Did not play
Next game: @ New York Islanders tonight
3 games remaining, 0 against teams in playoff spot
Home (1) – Tor April 10
Road (2) – NYI April 6, Car April 8

Boston Bruins – Seventh place, 36-30-13, 85 points
Last night: 2-1 overtime loss to Capitals
Next game: v. Buffalo Thursday
3 games remaining, 2 against teams in playoff spot
Home (2) – Buf April 8, Car April 10 
Road (1) – Was April 11

Philadelphia Flyers – Eighth place, 39-34-6, 84 points
Last night: Did not play
Next game: @ Toronto tonight
3 games remaining, 0 against teams in playoff spot
Home (1) – NYR April 11
Road (2) – Tor April 6, NYR April 9

New York Rangers – Ninth place, 36-32-10, 82 points
Last night: Did not play
Next game: @ Buffalo tonight
4 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot
Home (2) – Tor April 7, Pha April 9
Road (2) – Buf April 6, Pha April 11

Atlanta Thrashers – 10th place, 34-32-13, 81 points
Last night: Did not play
Next game: v New Jersey tonight
3 games remaining, 3 against teams in playoff spot
Home (2) – NJ April 6, Pgh April 10
Road (1) – Was April 9


Anonymous said...

Habs control their own destiny and these games against weaker teams which are all 3 remaining games are for some unknown reason the games they have come up with so many poor efforts. Every time lately it seems, each time Canadiens get themselves into a place where they can secure some ground, they lose. Islanders have won a couple in a row, I hope Habs don't take them lightly.

hockeyzombie said...

I don't understand how getting 1 point (OT loss) plus Flyers/Randers reg loss will get the Habs into the playoffs?

Habs will have 87 points but Flyers and Rangers can still get 88 points if they both lose tonight but win their remaining games.

What am I missing?

Arpon Basu said...

I'm the one who's missing something between my ears. I will correct. Thanks for pointing it out.

Anonymous said...

Both The Rangers and Flyers cannot win all of their remaining games - they have a home and home this weekend

Anonymous said...

If the Habs win tonight and the Rangers lose, the Habs are in with 88 points. If the Rangers win their last 3 games they would end up with 88 points as well but since they have 2 games with Philly, who now have 84 points, then the most Philly would end up with is 86.

Terry Gain

Anonymous said...

Habs didn't show up again tonight for the first period anyway outshot 15-5 lucky to be down just 1-0.

hockeyzombie said...

Thanks for the 'props' Arpon! I think I may have jixed the Habs by talking about the OT loss cause that's exactly what happened.